Matthew Freedman’s NFL Week 4 Projected Spreads, Predictions & Best Bets

Matthew Freedman’s NFL Week 4 Projected Spreads, Predictions & Best Bets

In this article each week I’ll present 1) my personal spread projections for each game, 2) the bets against the spread (ATS) that I like and 3) the five games that — as of writing on Wednesday — I’m most likely to enter into the $1M DraftKings picks contest. On Sunday, I’ll tweet out my final five for the contest and embed that tweet here as an update.

All odds are from the following sportsbooks.

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Also check out our BettingPros matchups page, where you can see the percentage distributions of spread, over/under and moneyline bets tracked in the BettingPros App.

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Freedman’s Week 4 Projections Against the Spread

Here are my personal spread projections for each Week 4 game, ordered according to when each game kicks off. The consensus lines are pulled from our BettingPros odds page on Wednesday and are presented — along with my projected lines and edges — from the perspective of the home team. (For the London game, the Saints are technically the home team.)

Note: I update my personal projections as well as our premium BettingPros spread projections throughout the week. These projections and odds are as of Wed., Sept. 28, 9 am ET. 

Home Team
Road Team
Consensus Line
Freedman Line
Projected Edge
CIN
MIA
-4
-2.5
1.5
NO
MIN
2.5
2.25
-0.25
ATL
CLE
1.5
1.5
0
DAL
WAS
-3.5
-2.25
1.25
BAL
BUF
3
1.75
-1.25
HOU
LAC
5
5
0
NYG
CHI
-3.5
-1.5
2
DET
SEA
-4.5
-5.5
-1
PHI
JAX
-6.5
-7
-0.5
IND
TEN
-3.5
-3.5
0
PIT
NYJ
-3.5
-4
-0.5
CAR
ARI
-1.5
1.75
3.25
LV
DEN
-2.5
0.25
2.75
GB
NE
-10
-10
0
TB
KC
2
0
-2
SF
LAR
-2.5
0.25
2.75

 

Based on my current projections, I’m willing to bet on five teams at their consensus lines right now.

Bears +3.5 at Giants
Cardinals +1.5 at Panthers
Broncos +2.5 at Raiders
Buccaneers +2 vs. Chiefs
Rams +2.5 at 49ers

Freedman’s Week 4 ATS Bet Breakdowns

Here are stats and notes for the five games with spread bets I like right now.

Chicago Bears at New York Giants

Check out our Bears at Giants matchup page.

Kickoff: Sunday, Oct. 4, 2022, 1 pm ET
Location: MetLife Stadium
TV: FOX

Bears at Giants: Consensus Lines

Spread: Giants -3.5
Over/Under: 49.5
Moneyline: Giants -170, Bears +145

Bears at Giants: Betting Percentages

Data from Action Network and as of Sept. 28.

Spread: Bears – 48% bets, 54% money
Over/Under: Over – 21% bets, 55% money
Moneyline: Bears – 48% bets, 74% money

Bears at Giants: Key Injuries

Bears: Week 4 Injury Report

Player
Position
Injury
Wed
Matthew Adams
OLB
Hamstring
DNP
Dane Cruikshank
DB
Hamstring
DNP
Jaylon Johnson
CB
Quad
DNP
David Montgomery
RB
Ankle/Knee
DNP
Ryan Griffin
TE
Achilles
LP
Velus Jones Jr.
WR
Hamstring
LP
Roquan Smith
ILB
Quad
LP

 

Bears: IR, PUP & Out

Name
POS
Status
Injury
Byron Pringle
WR
IR
Calf
Doug Kramer
C
IR
Foot
N’Keal Harry
WR
IR
Ankle
Dakota Dozier
G
IR
Knee
Alex Leatherwood
OT
PUP
Illness

 

Bears Injury News

Giants: Week 4 Injury Report

Player
Position
Injury
Wed
Cordale Flott
CB
Calf
DNP
Nick McCloud
CB
Hamstring
DNP
Wan’Dale Robinson
WR
Knee
DNP
Sterling Shepard
WR
Knee
DNP
Kadarius Toney
WR
Hamstring
DNP
Jihad Ward
OLB
Knee
DNP
Leonard Williams
DE
Knee
DNP
Justin Layne
CB
Concussion
LP
Aaron Robinson
CB
Appendix
LP

 

Giants: IR, PUP & Out

Name
POS
Status
Injury
Sterling Shepard
WR
IR
Knee
Elerson Smith
EDGE
IR
Leg
Rodarius Williams
DB
IR
Knee
Collin Johnson
WR
IR
Achilles
Darrian Beavers
LB
IR
Knee
Shane Lemieux
G
IR
Toe
Marcus McKethan
G
IR
Knee
Matt Peart
T
PUP
Knee
Nick Gates
T
PUP
Leg

 

Giants Injury News

Bears at Giants: Notable Trends

Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).

Bears Trends

QB Justin Fields: 4-9 ATS (33.5% ROI for faders) overall
Road Underdogs: 382-327-16 ATS (5.3% ROI) in Weeks 1-4

Giants Trends

QB Daniel Jones: 8-13 ATS (21.8% ROI for faders) at home
QB Daniel Jones: 2-6 ATS (43.2% ROI for faders) as favorite
QB Daniel Jones: 1-4 ATS (43.0% ROI for faders) as home favorite
Home Favorites: 82-106-8 ATS (9.8% ROI for faders) off a loss as home favorites

Bears at Giants: Team Statistics

Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).

Bears Offense vs. Giants Defense

Metric
Offense
Rank
Defense
Rank
Offense Edge
EPA per Play
-0.032
17
0.054
19
2
Total SR
38.2%
31
46.2%
24
-7
Total DVOA
-15.3%
28
16.6%
28
0
Dropback EPA
-0.134
28
0.037
17
-11
Dropback SR
32.8%
31
45.9%
17
-14
Pass DVOA
-47.4%
32
20.5%
25
-7
Adj. Sack Rate
18.1%
32
3.5%
30
-2
Rush EPA
0.044
6
0.079
29
23
Rush SR
42.2%
12
46.7%
26
14
Rush DVOA
12.8%
6
11.5%
28
22
Adj. Line Yards
4.79
9
5.09
30
21
Yards per Play
5
24
5.9
24
0
Points per Game
17.3
20
19.7
12
-8

 

Giants Offense vs. Bears Defense

Metric
Offense
Rank
Defense
Rank
Offense Edge
EPA per Play
-0.05
21
-0.015
13
-8
Total SR
40.6%
26
45.9%
22
-4
Total DVOA
-7.5%
20
-2.9%
11
-9
Dropback EPA
-0.098
24
0
11
-13
Dropback SR
40.5%
26
43.6%
12
-14
Pass DVOA
-8.3%
25
-6.9%
10
-15
Adj. Sack Rate
13.3%
31
6.6%
14
-17
Rush EPA
0.039
7
-0.031
21
14
Rush SR
40.8%
18
48.4%
29
11
Rush DVOA
5.5%
11
0.6%
22
11
Adj. Line Yards
4.31
17
4.82
25
8
Yards per Play
5.1
21
5.7
19
-2
Points per Game
18.7
18
19
11
-7

 

Bears at Giants: Quarterback Statistics

Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 48 plays for EPA + CPOE & Air Yards. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.

2022: Justin Fields

Metric
Output
Rank
EPA + CPOE
-0.05
31
AY/A
3.5
32
QBR
23
31

ATS Value vs. Average: -3.0 (No. 33)

Career: Justin Fields

AY/A: 5.5
QB Elo per Game: -118.2

2022: Daniel Jones

Metric
Output
Rank
EPA + CPOE
0.027
24
AY/A
5.8
27
QBR
34
27

ATS Value vs. Average: -1.1 (No. 28)

Career: Daniel Jones

AY/A: 6.3
QB Elo per Game: -35.8

Key Matchup: Bears Rush Offense vs. Giants Rush Defense

No. 1 RB David Montgomery (ankle, knee) didn’t practice on Wednesday, but he’s theoretically day to day …

Bears RB David Montgomery is still considered day-to-day per head coach Matt Eberflus.

— Kevin Fishbain (@kfishbain) September 28, 2022

… so there’s a chance he’ll play in Week 4. And even if he doesn’t I don’t think that will matter given how well No. 2 RB Khalil Herbert has played in Montgomery’s stead. He went off with 20-157-2 rushing last week as an in-game fill-in, and last year he had 78-344-1 rushing in four games while subbing in for Montgomery.

And QB Justin Fields is always a rushing threat with his 27 carries this year.

The Bears are top-12 in all the key rushing efficiency metrics, and the Giants defense is outside the top 20 and might be without DL Leonard Williams (knee) and EDGE Jihad Ward (knee).

I think the Bears will control the ball with their running attack to keep this game close.

Best Line: Bears +3.5 (-109, Bet Rivers)
First Recommended: Bears +3 (-110)
Personal Projection: Bears +1.5
Limit: Bears +3

Prop Bet Analyzer: View top rated props and historical prop performance by player >>

Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers

Check out our Cardinals at Panthers matchup page.

Kickoff: Sunday, Oct. 4, 2022, 4 pm ET
Location: Bank of America Stadium
TV: FOX

Cardinals at Panthers: Consensus Lines

Spread: Panthers -1.5
Over/Under: 42.5
Moneyline: Panthers -125, Cardinals +105

Cardinals at Panthers: Betting Percentages

Data from Action Network and as of Sept. 28.

Spread: Cardinals – 76% bets, 78% money
Over/Under: Under – 63% bets, 80% money
Moneyline: Panthers – 10% bets, 25% money

Cardinals at Panthers: Key Injuries

Cardinals: Week 4 Injury Report

Player
Position
Injury
Wed
Kelvin Beachum
OT
NIR-Rest
DNP
Marquise Brown
WR
NIR-Rest
DNP
Zach Ertz
TE
NIR-Rest
DNP
Rodney Hudson
C
Knee
DNP
Rashard Lawrence
NT
Hand
DNP
Justin Pugh
G
Elbow
DNP
Zeke Turner
LB
Ankle
DNP
J.J. Watt
DE
Calf
DNP
A.J. Green
WR
Knee
DNP
Zaven Collins
ILB
Shoulder
LP
James Conner
RB
Knee
LP
Greg Dortch
WR
Back
LP
Rondale Moore
WR
Hamstring
LP
Matt Prater
K
Right Hip
LP

 

Cardinals: IR, PUP & Out

Name
POS
Status
Injury
Tae Daley
DB
IR
Head
Joshua Miles
OT
IR
Undisclosed
Cody Ford
OL
IR
Ankle
Colt McCoy
QB
IR
Calf
Antoine Wesley
WR
IR
Groin
Charles Washington
DB
IR
Chest
Marquis Hayes
G
IR
Knee
Antonio Hamilton
DB
PUP
Foot
DeAndre Hopkins
WR
Suspended
Disciplinary

 

Cardinals Injury News

Panthers: Week 4 Injury Report

Player
Position
Injury
Wed
Christian McCaffrey
RB
Thigh
DNP
Jaycee Horn
CB
Calf
LP
Ian Thomas
TE
Ankle
LP
Stantley Thomas-Oliver
CB
Achilles
LP
Xavier Woods
S
Hamstring
LP
Laviska Shenault Jr.
WR
Hamstring
LP

 

Panthers: IR, PUP & Out

Name
POS
Status
Injury
Bravvion Roy
DL
IR
Hamstring
Andre Roberts
WR
IR
Knee
Julian Stanford
LB
IR
Undisclosed
Zane Gonzalez
K
IR
Groin
Sam Darnold
QB
IR
Ankle
Matt Corral
QB
IR
Foot

 

Panthers Injury News

Cardinals at Panthers: Notable Trends

Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).

Cardinals Trends

HC Kliff Kingsbury: 18-6-2 ATS (42.4% ROI) on road
HC Kliff Kingsbury: 19-9-2 ATS (30.0% ROI) as underdog
HC Kliff Kingsbury: 14-3-2 ATS (53.4% ROI) as road underdog
HC Kliff Kingsbury: 12-7 ML (79.3% ROI) as road underdog

Panthers Trends

HC Matt Rhule: 5-13 ATS (40.6% ROI for faders) at home
HC Matt Rhule: 3-10 ATS (48.5% ROI for faders) as favorite
HC Matt Rhule: 1-7 ATS (70.0% ROI for faders) as home favorite
HC Matt Rhule: 1-7 ML (99.8% ROI for faders) as home favorite

Cardinals at Panthers: Team Statistics

Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).

Cardinals Offense vs. Panthers Defense

Metric
Offense
Rank
Defense
Rank
Offense Edge
EPA per Play
0.004
11
-0.047
10
-1
Total SR
43.2%
18
40.4%
7
-11
Total DVOA
-8.9%
21
-0.9%
14
-7
Dropback EPA
-0.023
20
0.021
13
-7
Dropback SR
40.6%
25
40.6%
8
-17
Pass DVOA
-5.1%
24
6.3%
17
-7
Adj. Sack Rate
5.1%
9
4.4%
27
18
Rush EPA
0.073
4
-0.154
10
6
Rush SR
50.0%
2
40.0%
15
13
Rush DVOA
-5.8%
16
-10.3%
13
-3
Adj. Line Yards
4.33
15
4.19
13
-2
Yards per Play
4.8
26
5
10
-16
Points per Game
20.7
13
19.7
12
-1

 

Panthers Offense vs. Cardinals Defense

Metric
Offense
Rank
Defense
Rank
Offense Edge
EPA per Play
-0.05
21
0.191
31
10
Total SR
37.9%
32
51.4%
31
-1
Total DVOA
-12.8%
25
22.0%
31
6
Dropback EPA
-0.135
30
0.366
31
1
Dropback SR
32.0%
32
57.4%
32
0
Pass DVOA
-22.9%
30
39.4%
30
0
Adj. Sack Rate
10.1%
28
2.3%
32
4
Rush EPA
0.082
2
-0.105
15
13
Rush SR
47.0%
3
41.2%
18
15
Rush DVOA
7.3%
9
-10.0%
14
5
Adj. Line Yards
4.98
6
4.60
18
12
Yards per Play
5.1
21
6.7
32
11
Points per Game
20.7
13
29
31
18

 

Cardinals at Panthers: Quarterback Statistics

Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 48 plays for EPA + CPOE & Air Yards. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.

2022: Baker Mayfield

Metric
Output
Rank
EPA + CPOE
-0.057
32
AY/A
7
14
QBR
18.8
32

ATS Value vs. Average: -2.4 (No. 32)

Career: Baker Mayfield

AY/A: 7.0
QB Elo per Game: -38.5

2022: Kyler Murray

Metric
Output
Rank
EPA + CPOE
0.019
26
AY/A
5.7
28
QBR
49.5
14

ATS Value vs. Average: 1.8 (No. 8)

Career: Kyler Murray

AY/A: 7.1
QB Elo per Game: 65.0

Key Matchup: QB Kyler Murray vs. Panthers Pass Defense 

Both teams have similar advantages in the running game. The Cardinals offense is No. 2 in rush SR, and the Panthers defense is No. 15 in rush SR. The Panthers offense is No. 2 in rush EPA, and the Cardinals defense is No. 15 in rush EPA.

I think both teams will want to lean on the ground game.

But when the Cardinals choose to pass, QB Kyler Murray will have a massive edge relative to Panthers QB Baker Mayfield and a direct edge against the Panthers defense and secondary (per our FantasyPros unit power rankings).

Rank
Quarterback
Offense
Opp Defense
Defense Rank
Secondary Rank
QB-Def Edge
QB-Sec Edge
9
Kyler Murray
ARI
CAR
19
12
10
3

 

And as bad as we might think the Cardinals offensive line is, it’s no worse than the Panthers defensive line, so I don’t expect Murray to be under a great amount of pressure.

Rank
Offensive Line
Opp DL
DL Rank
Edge
24
ARI
CAR
24
0

 

Per usual, Murray will be the difference in this game.

In the offseason market, this line was Cardinals -2. This line has moved too far in not even a month of action.

Best Line: Cardinals +2 (-110, DraftKings)
First Recommended: Cardinals +1.5 (-110)
Personal Projection: Cardinals -1.75
Limit: Pick’Em

Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders

Check out our Broncos at Raiders matchup page.

Kickoff: Sunday, Oct. 4, 2022, 4:25 pm ET
Location: Allegiant Stadium
TV: CBS

Broncos at Raiders: Consensus Lines

Spread: Raiders -2.5
Over/Under: 45.5
Moneyline: Raiders -140, Broncos +120

Broncos at Raiders: Betting Percentages

Data from Action Network and as of Sept. 28.

Spread: Raiders – 68% bets, 85% money
Over/Under: Under – 84% bets, 96% money
Moneyline: Raiders – 62% bets, 72% money

Broncos at Raiders: Key Injuries

Broncos: Week 4 Injury Report

Player
Position
Injury
Wed
Tyrie Cleveland
WR
Hamstring
DNP
Jonathon Cooper
LB
Hamstring
DNP
Randy Gregory
OLB
Knee
DNP
D.J. Jones
NT
Concussion
DNP
Darius Phillips
CB
Hamstring
DNP
Dalton Risner
G
Ankle
DNP
Billy Turner
OT
Knee
DNP
Baron Browning
LB
Knee
LP
Melvin Gordon
RB
Neck
LP
P.J. Locke
DB
Ankle
LP
Quinn Meinerz
G
Hamstring
LP
Aaron Patrick
LB
Shoulder
LP
Mike Purcell
NT
Neck
LP
Caden Sterns
SAF
Hip
LP
K’Waun Williams
DB
Wrist
LP

 

Broncos: IR, PUP & Out

Name
POS
Status
Injury
Justin Simmons
DB
IR
Quadriceps
Michael Ojemudia
DB
IR
Elbow
Christopher Allen
EDGE
IR
Foor
Greg Dulcich
TE
IR
Hamstring
Damarea Crockett
RB
IR
Knee
Tim Patrick
WR
IR
Knee
Tom Compton
T
PUP
Back

 

Broncos Injury News

Raiders: Week 4 Injury Report

Player
Position
Injury
Wed
Neil Farrell
DE
Shoulder
FP
Andre James
C
Concussion
FP
Nate Hobbs
CB
Concussion
DNP
Hunter Renfrow
WR
Concussion
DNP
Foster Moreau
TE
Knee
DNP
Tre’von Moehrig
FS
Hip
LP
Rock Ya-Sin
CB
Knee
LP
Kolton Miller
OT
Ankle
LP
Denzel Perryman
MLB
Ankle
LP
Bilal Nichols
DT
Shoulder
LP

 

Raiders: IR, PUP & Out

Name
POS
Status
Injury
DJ Turner
WR
IR
Ankle
Anthony Averett
DB
IR
Thumb
Jordan Jenkins
EDGE
IR
Knee
Brandon Parker
T
IR
Triceps
Micah Kiser
LB
IR
Leg
Sincere McCormick
RB
IR
Undisclosed

 

Raiders Injury News

Broncos at Raiders: Notable Trends

Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).

Broncos Trends

QB Russell Wilson: 83-71-7 ATS (5.1% ROI) overall
QB Russell Wilson: 27-13-2 ATS (30.3% ROI) as underdog
QB Russell Wilson: 22-19-1 ML (34.2% ROI) as underdog
Divisional Road Underdogs: 130-95-8 ATS (12.6% ROI) in Weeks 1-4

Raiders Trends

QB Derek Carr: 13-25-1 ATS (26.9% ROI for faders) as favorite

Broncos at Raiders: Team Statistics

Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).

Broncos Offense vs. Raiders Defense

Metric
Offense
Rank
Defense
Rank
Offense Edge
EPA per Play
-0.009
13
0.087
25
12
Total SR
40.1%
29
48.3%
28
-1
Total DVOA
-11.1%
22
6.6%
20
-2
Dropback EPA
0.115
9
0.227
29
20
Dropback SR
40.5%
26
50.8%
27
1
Pass DVOA
10.5%
14
17.0%
23
9
Adj. Sack Rate
8.0%
24
3.2%
31
7
Rush EPA
-0.222
27
-0.133
13
-14
Rush SR
39.5%
22
44.3%
24
2
Rush DVOA
-18.3%
21
-6.5%
15
-6
Adj. Line Yards
4.77
10
4.14
9
-1
Yards per Play
5.2
20
5.7
19
-1
Points per Game
14.3
31
25.7
24
-7

 

Raiders Offense vs. Broncos Defense

Metric
Offense
Rank
Defense
Rank
Offense Edge
EPA per Play
0.008
10
-0.142
6
-4
Total SR
43.8%
17
40.2%
6
-11
Total DVOA
-12.5%
24
-24.3%
5
-19
Dropback EPA
0.048
14
-0.133
6
-8
Dropback SR
45.3%
18
39.5%
3
-15
Pass DVOA
3.0%
20
-25.9%
4
-16
Adj. Sack Rate
6.4%
17
8.8%
8
-9
Rush EPA
-0.098
20
-0.161
8
-12
Rush SR
39.6%
21
41.8%
19
-2
Rush DVOA
-21.5%
23
-21.6%
8
-15
Adj. Line Yards
5.08
3
4.52
15
12
Yards per Play
5.7
10
4.7
6
-4
Points per Game
21.3
10
12
2
-8

 

Broncos at Raiders: Quarterback Statistics

Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 48 plays for EPA + CPOE & Air Yards. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.

2022: Russell Wilson

Metric
Output
Rank
EPA + CPOE
0.076
16
AY/A
7
14
QBR
45.2
21

ATS Value vs. Average: -0.2 (No. 19)

Career: Russell Wilson

AY/A: 8.2
QB Elo per Game: 37.4

2022: Derek Carr

Metric
Output
Rank
EPA + CPOE
0.085
14
AY/A
6.6
20
QBR
48.8
16

ATS Value vs. Average: 0.0 (No. 17)

Career: Derek Carr

AY/A: 7.1
QB Elo per Game: 14.4

Key Matchup: QB Russell Wilson vs. Raiders Pass Defense 

The Raiders have no offensive edge in this game, but the Broncos have a big one: QB Russell Wilson.

It’s not that Wilson has been great this year, but the Raiders have been subpar in pass defense, ranking bottom-six in both dropback EPA and SR. Even with the strong EDGE duo of Maxx Crosby and Chandler Jones, they’ve managed a league-low two sacks as a unit.

They let QB Justin Herbert walk all over them in Week 1 (279 yards, three touchdowns, 76.5% completion rate, 10.0 AY/A).

They let QB Kyler Murray come back from a 20-0 halftime deficit while getting minimal offensive support in Week 2.

And they let QB Ryan Tannehill save his job and maybe the Titans’ season in Week 3 (264 yards, one touchdown, 70.4% completion rate, 8.9 AY/A).

And they’re injured. They’re already without No. 2 CB Anthony Averett (thumb, IR), and they might be without No. 3 CB Nate Hobbs (concussion). Even No. 1 CB Rock Ya-Sin (knee) is on the injury report.

And S Tre’von Moehrig (hip) and LB Denzel Perryman (ankle) have both missed the past two games and are uncertain to return this week.

The Raiders defense is exploitable, and I expect Wilson to have his Broncos breakout against it.

This line was a pick’em in the offseason. Maybe the Broncos aren’t as good as the market anticipated they would be months ago — but that’s definitely true for the Raiders too.

Best Line: Broncos +2.5 (+100, Caesars)
First Recommended: Broncos +2 (-109)
Personal Projection: Broncos -0.25
Limit: Broncos +1.5

Prop Bet Analyzer: View top rated props and historical prop performance by player >>

Kansas City Chiefs at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Check out our Chiefs at Buccaneers matchup page.

Kickoff: Sunday, Oct. 4, 2022, 8:20 pm ET
Location: Raymond James Stadium
TV: NBC

Note: This game might be played in Minneapolis due to Hurricane Ian. Different sportsbooks have different policies when it comes to change in venue. Please be advised.

FYI:

Chiefs-Buccaneers game will be played in Minnesapolis if needed due to Hurricane Ian.

If there is a change in venue or the game is moved, all wagers will be cancelled at @BetMGM.

— John Ewing ? (@johnewing) September 29, 2022

Chiefs at Buccaneers: Consensus Lines

Spread: Chiefs -2
Over/Under: 45
Moneyline: Chiefs -130, Buccaneers +110

Chiefs at Buccaneers: Betting Percentages

Data from Action Network and as of Sept. 28.

Spread: Chiefs – 70% bets, 88% money
Over/Under: Under – 64% bets, 89% money
Moneyline: Chiefs – 84% bets, 88% money

Chiefs at Buccaneers: Key Injuries

Chiefs: Week 4 Injury Report

Player
Position
Injury
Wed
JuJu Smith-Schuster
WR
Shoulder
FP
Andrew Wylie
OT
Hip
FP
Michael Danna
DE
Calf
DNP
Mecole Hardman
WR
Heel
DNP
Chris Jones
DT
Not Injury Related
DNP
Ronald Jones
RB
lllness
DNP
Harrison Butker
K
Left Ankle
LP
Marquez Valdes-Scantling
WR
Abdomen
LP

 

Chiefs: IR, PUP & Out

Name
POS
Status
Injury
Trent McDuffie
DB
IR
Hamstring
Blake Bell
TE
IR
Hip
Justyn Ross
WR
IR
Foot
Lucas Niang
T
PUP
Knee
Willie Gay
LB
Suspended
Disciplinary

 

Chiefs Injury News

Buccaneers: Week 4 Injury Report

Player
Position
Injury
Wed
Tom Brady
QB
Right finger
FP
Akiem Hicks
DE
Foot
DNP
Breshad Perriman
WR
Knee/hamstring
DNP
Russell Gage
WR
Hamstring
LP
Chris Godwin
WR
Hamstring
LP
Logan Hall
DE
Groin
LP
Julio Jones
WR
Knee
LP
Donovan Smith
OT
Elbow
LP

 

Buccaneers: IR, PUP & Out

Name
POS
Status
Injury
Josh Wells
OT
IR
Calf
Giovani Bernard
RB
IR
Ankle
Cam Gill
EDGE
IR
Foot
Aaron Stinnie
G
IR
Knee
Kenjon Barner
RB
IR
Groin
Ryan Jensen
C
IR
Knee

 

Buccaneers Injury News

Chiefs at Buccaneers: Notable Trends

Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).

Chiefs Trends

HC Andy Reid: 24-15 ATS (21.3% ROI) in Weeks 1-4 (with Chiefs)
HC Andy Reid: 45-27-1 ATS (22.4% ROI) on road (with Chiefs)

Buccaneers Trends

QB Tom Brady: 23-9-2 ATS (38.4% ROI) as underdog
QB Tom Brady: 20-14 ML (45.0% ROI) as underdog
QB Tom Brady: 43-16 ATS (43.9% ROI) off a loss
QB Tom Brady: 48-11 ML (29.6% ROI) off a loss
QB Tom Brady: 10-0 ATS (96.0% ROI) as underdog off a loss
QB Tom Brady: 8-2 ML (102.1% ROI) as underdog off a loss

Against the spread, this man is 10-0 as an underdog off a loss.

Good luck this week to the Chiefs. pic.twitter.com/1hGLIaEcHr

— Matthew Freedman (@MattFtheOracle) September 29, 2022

Chiefs at Buccaneers: Team Statistics

Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).

Chiefs Offense vs. Buccaneers Defense

Metric
Offense
Rank
Defense
Rank
Offense Edge
EPA per Play
0.202
2
-0.275
1
-1
Total SR
48.9%
4
40.1%
5
1
Total DVOA
13.5%
10
-34.3%
1
-9
Dropback EPA
0.337
2
-0.293
1
-1
Dropback SR
55.9%
3
39.7%
5
2
Pass DVOA
41.2%
7
-43.1%
1
-6
Adj. Sack Rate
2.3%
1
9.4%
6
5
Rush EPA
-0.080
15
-0.235
5
-10
Rush SR
34.4%
28
41.0%
17
-11
Rush DVOA
-31.2%
29
-17.4%
10
-19
Adj. Line Yards
4.04
23
4.53
16
-7
Yards per Play
6.2
4
4.5
3
-1
Points per Game
29.3
4
9
1
-3

 

Buccaneers Offense vs. Chiefs Defense

Metric
Offense
Rank
Defense
Rank
Offense Edge
EPA per Play
-0.129
30
-0.042
11
-19
Total SR
41.0%
25
44.7%
18
-7
Total DVOA
-14.8%
27
-10.0%
9
-18
Dropback EPA
0.002
17
-0.02
10
-7
Dropback SR
43.5%
19
45.0%
15
-4
Pass DVOA
4.0%
18
0.6%
14
-4
Adj. Sack Rate
5.6%
11
8.1%
10
-1
Rush EPA
-0.335
32
-0.088
16
-16
Rush SR
37.0%
25
43.9%
20
-5
Rush DVOA
-25.1%
26
-28.4%
6
-20
Adj. Line Yards
4.22
19
3.98
6
-13
Yards per Play
4.8
26
4.6
5
-21
Points per Game
17
22
21.7
17
-5

 

Chiefs at Buccaneers: Quarterback Statistics

Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 48 plays for EPA + CPOE & Air Yards. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.

2022: Patrick Mahomes

Metric
Output
Rank
EPA + CPOE
0.209
1
AY/A
8.9
4
QBR
76.2
4

ATS Value vs. Average: 4.7 (No. 2)

Career: Patrick Mahomes

AY/A: 8.7
QB Elo per Game: 117.6

2022: Tom Brady

Metric
Output
Rank
EPA + CPOE
0.048
20
AY/A
6.7
18
QBR
47.5
17

ATS Value vs. Average: 2.6 (No. 6)

Career: Tom Brady

AY/A: 7.8
QB Elo per Game: 72.6

Key Matchup: Buccaneers Secondary vs. Chiefs Pass Catchers

TE Travis Kelce (17-230-2 receiving, 24 targets) is still one of the best players in the league, but the new trio of WRs JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Skyy Moore has been unable to replicate or replace the lost production of WRs Tyreek Hill, Byron Pringle and Demarcus Robinson.

And against the Buccaneers secondary (No. 1 in our unit power rankings) they are at a clear disadvantage.

Rank
WRs & TEs
Opp Secondary
Secondary Rank
Edge
13
KC
TB
1
-12

 

With WRs Mike Evans (suspension) and Julio Jones (knee) slated to return this week, the Buccaneers offense should be able to do just enough to make the heroic efforts of their secondary against QB Patrick Mahomes and his pass catchers not in vain.

This line was Buccaneers -2.5 in the offseason. They’ve struggled in Weeks 1-3 — but so have the Chiefs. This line has moved too far.

Best Line: Buccaneers +2.5 (-109, Sugar House)
First Recommended: Buccaneers +3 (-110)
Personal Projection: Pick’Em
Limit: Buccaneers +1.5

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Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers

Check out our 49ers at Rams matchup page.

Kickoff: Sunday, Oct. 3, 2022, 8:15 pm ET
Location: Levi’s Stadium
TV: ESPN

Rams at 49ers: Consensus Lines

Spread: 49ers -2.5
Over/Under: 42
Moneyline: 49ers -135, Rams +110

Rams at 49ers: Betting Percentages

Data from Action Network and as of Sept. 28.

Spread: 49ers – 35% bets, 70% money
Over/Under: Under – 74% bets, 99% money
Moneyline: 49ers – 20% bets, 75% money

Rams at 49ers: Key Injuries

Rams: Week 4 Injury Report

Not available at time of writing.

Rams: IR, PUP & Out

Name
POS
Status
Injury
Tremayne Anchrum
G
IR
Leg
Troy Hill
DB
IR
Groin
Kyren Williams
RB
IR
Ankle
Daniel Hardy
LB
IR
Ankle
Logan Bruss
G
IR
Knee
Van Jefferson
WR
IR
Knee
Quentin Lake
S
PUP
Knee
Travin Howard
LB
PUP
Groin
Brycen Hopkins
TE
Suspended
Disciplinary
Bobby Brown
DL
Suspended
Disciplinary

 

Rams Injury News

49ers: Week 4 Injury Report

Not available at time of writing.

49ers: IR, PUP & Out

Name
POS
Status
Injury
Trey Lance
QB
IR
Leg
Jordan Willis
EDGE
IR
Knee
Elijah Mitchell
RB
IR
Knee
Curtis Robinson
LB
IR
Groin
Jimmie Ward
DB
IR
Hamstring
Jordan Matthews
TE
IR
Knee
Maurice Hurst
DL
IR
Biceps
Kalia Davis
DL
PUP
Knee
Jason Verrett
DB
PUP
Knee

 

49ers Injury News

Rams at 49ers: Notable Trends

Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).

Rams Trends

HC Sean McVay: 15-10-1 ATS (15.7% ROI) in primetime (including postseason)
HC Sean McVay: 24-18 ATS (12.2% ROI) on road
HC Sean McVay: 9-7 ATS (10.3% ROI) as underdog
HC Sean McVay: 8-3 ATS (43.0% ROI) as road underdog
HC Sean McVay: 18-12-1 ATS (16.6% ROI) in division

49ers Trends

HC Kyle Shanahan: 8-3 ATS (38.8% ROI) vs. McVay (including postseason)
HC Kyle Shanahan: 15-22-1 ATS (14.9% ROI for faders) at home
HC Kyle Shanahan: 17-26-1 ATS (21.6% ROI for faders) as favorite
HC Kyle Shanahan: 7-15-1 ATS (29.7% ROI for faders) as home favorite
HC Kyle Shanahan: 11-12 ML (50.6% ROI for faders) as home favorite

Rams at 49ers: Team Statistics

Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).

Rams Offense vs. 49ers Defense

Metric
Offense
Rank
Defense
Rank
Offense Edge
EPA per Play
-0.048
19
-0.166
4
-15
Total SR
48.3%
6
34.5%
1
-5
Total DVOA
-6.1%
18
-28.5%
3
-15
Dropback EPA
-0.027
21
-0.169
5
-16
Dropback SR
52.6%
5
35.3%
1
-4
Pass DVOA
5.2%
16
-24.7%
5
-11
Adj. Sack Rate
8.5%
25
10.2%
3
-22
Rush EPA
-0.086
19
-0.161
8
-11
Rush SR
40.3%
20
33.3%
4
-16
Rush DVOA
-3.2%
14
-32.6%
3
-11
Adj. Line Yards
4.15
22
3.36
5
-17
Yards per Play
5.3
18
3.9
1
-17
Points per Game
20.3
15
12.3
3
-12

 

49ers Offense vs. Rams Defense

Metric
Offense
Rank
Defense
Rank
Offense Edge
EPA per Play
-0.094
27
-0.008
14
-13
Total SR
41.3%
24
44.0%
14
-10
Total DVOA
-12.0%
23
-0.3%
16
-7
Dropback EPA
-0.108
25
0.128
23
-2
Dropback SR
41.0%
24
47.4%
19
-5
Pass DVOA
3.9%
19
16.4%
22
3
Adj. Sack Rate
8.0%
23
6.1%
21
-2
Rush EPA
-0.080
15
-0.290
1
-14
Rush SR
41.6%
14
36.9%
8
-6
Rush DVOA
-16.2%
20
-30.6%
4
-16
Adj. Line Yards
4.20
21
4.17
10
-11
Yards per Play
5.1
21
5.3
14
-7
Points per Game
15.7
28
23.3
20
-8

 

Rams at 49ers: Quarterback Statistics

Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 48 plays for EPA + CPOE & Air Yards. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.

2022: Matthew Stafford

Metric
Output
Rank
EPA + CPOE
0.086
13
AY/A
6
24
QBR
51.1
13

ATS Value vs. Average: 1.1 (No. 12)

Career: Matthew Stafford

AY/A: 7.2
QB Elo per Game: 22.2

2022: Jimmy Garoppolo

Metric
Output
Rank
EPA + CPOE
0.036
23
AY/A
7.2
9
QBR
28.9
29

ATS Value vs. Average: -0.8 (No. 24)

Career: Jimmy Garoppolo

AY/A: 8.1
QB Elo per Game: -9.1

Key Matchup: Rams Defensive Line vs. 49ers Offensive Line

The 49ers offensive line is in a bad spot. LT Trent Williams (ankle) is almost certainly out after exiting Week 3 with a sprain. And C Daniel Brunskill (hamstring) is yet to play this year — and he didn’t even practice last week. He doesn’t seem likely to suit up.

So the 49ers are missing their two most important offensive linemen — and they’re now facing All-Pro DT Aaron Donald.

The 49ers offense is built around their running game. They’re No. 3 in teh league with a 53.4% rush rate. But the Rams defense is No. 1 in rush EPA (-0.290).

So the 49ers could struggle to run — and they also might struggle to pass protect without Williams and Brunskill. Given how good he is as a blocker, it’s probable that the 49ers will even use TE George Kittle more in pass protection to compensate for their weakness on the edge without Williams, which is a good idea in theory — but it means that Kittle will be running fewer routes, which is bad overall.

We see the Rams as having a significant edge over the 49ers in this trench matchup (per our FantasyPros unit power rankings).

Rank
Defensive Line
Opp OL
OL Rank
Edge
2
LAR
SF
18
16

 

If the 49ers can’t run, and if they struggle to protect QB Jimmy Garoppolo, they will have very little going for them on offense — and we saw what that looked like in Week 3, when they scored just 10 points against the Broncos on Sunday Night Football.

This line was Rams -0.5 in the offseason, and I still think they should be favored.

Best Line: Rams +2.5 (-110, BetMGM)
First Recommended: Rams +2.5 (-110)
Personal Projection: Rams -0.25
Limit: Rams +1.5

Freedman’s 5 ATS Picks for Season-Long Contests

The five spreads I’ve highlighted above are the ones that right (right now) I’m leaning toward in the DraftKings picks contest.

Note: The lines for this contest can vary from those highlighted above.

Bears +3.5 at Giants
Cardinals +2.5 at Panthers
Broncos +2.5 at Raiders
Buccaneers +1.5 vs. Chiefs
Rams +2.5 at 49ers

Also in consideration are:

Dolphins +4.5 at Bengals
Lions -4.5 vs. Seahawks
Titans +3.5 at Colts
Ravens +3.5 vs. Bills
Packers -9.5 vs. Patriots

Look for my tweet update on Sunday before kickoff.

Week 3 Record

Picks in BettingPros tracker: 7-6 (+0.47 units)
Picks in $1M DraftKings picks pool: 4-1

Year-to-Date Record

Picks in BettingPros tracker: 19-12-1 (+5.86 units)
Picks in $1M DraftKings picks pool: 11-4

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Author: Michael Walker