Matthew Freedman’s NFL Week 5 Projected Spreads, Predictions & Best Bets

Matthew Freedman’s NFL Week 5 Projected Spreads, Predictions & Best Bets

In this article each week, I’ll present 1) my personal spread projections for each game, 2) the bets against the spread (ATS) that I like and 3) the five games that — as of writing on Wednesday — I’m most likely to enter into the $1M DraftKings picks contest. On Sunday, I’ll tweet out my final five for the contest and embed that tweet here as an update.

All odds are from the following sportsbooks.

Click on the sportsbook links above to check out their promotional offers. If you’re not taking advantage of these deals, you’re basically admitting to yourself that you hate money.

Also check out our BettingPros matchups page, where you can see the percentage distributions of spread, over/under and moneyline bets tracked in the BettingPros App.

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Freedman’s Week 5 Projections Against the Spread

Here are my personal spread projections for each Week 5 game, ordered according to when each game kicks off. The consensus lines are pulled from our BettingPros odds page on Wednesday and are presented — along with my projected lines and edges — from the perspective of the home team. (For the London game, the Packers are technically the home team.)

Note: I update my personal projections as well as our premium BettingPros spread projections throughout the week. These projections and odds are as of Wed., Oct. 5, 8:30 pm ET. 

Home Team
Road Team
Consensus Line
Freedman Line
Projected Edge
DEN
IND
-3.5
-3.5
0
GB
NYG
-8
-7.75
0.25
BUF
PIT
-14
-13.75
0.25
CLE
LAC
2.5
2.25
-0.25
MIN
CHI
-7
-7.75
-0.75
WAS
TEN
2.5
0.25
-2.25
JAX
HOU
-7
-6.25
0.75
NO
SEA
-5.5
-4.5
1
TB
ATL
-9
-9.5
-0.5
NYJ
MIA
3
3
0
NE
DET
-3
-1
2
CAR
SF
6.5
4.5
-2
ARI
PHI
5.5
2.75
-2.75
LAR
DAL
-5.5
-6
-0.5
BAL
CIN
-3
-2.25
0.75
KC
LV
-7
-9
-2

 

Based on my current projections, I’m willing to bet on five teams at their consensus lines right now.

Commanders +2.5 vs. Titans
Lions +3 at Patriots
Panthers +6.5 vs. 49ers
Cardinals +5.5 vs. Eagles
Chiefs -7 vs. Raiders

Freedman’s Week 5 ATS Bet Breakdowns

Here are stats and notes for the five games with spread bets I like right now.

Tennessee Titans at Washington Commanders

Check out our Titans at Commanders matchup page.

Kickoff: Sunday, Oct. 9, 2022, 1 pm ET
Location: FedExField
TV: CBS

Titans at Commanders: Consensus Lines

Spread: Titans -2.5
Over/Under: 42.5
Moneyline: Titans -135, Commanders +115

Titans at Commanders: Betting Percentages

Data from Action Network and as of Oct. 5.

Spread: Titans – 78% bets, 89% money
Over/Under: Under – 34% bets, 44% money
Moneyline: Commanders – 16% bets, 39% money

Titans at Commanders: Injuries

Titans: Week 5 Injury Report

Player
Position
Injury
Wed
Ola Adeniyi
OLB
Neck
DNP
Treylon Burks
WR
Toe
DNP
Zach Cunningham
ILB
Elbow
DNP
Bud Dupree
OLB
Hip
DNP
Joe Jones
LB
Knee
DNP
Tory Carter
FB
Neck
LP
Amani Hooker
S
Concussion
LP
Ugo Amadi
SAF
Ankle
FP

 

Titans: IR, PUP & Out

Player
Pos
Status
Chance Campbell
LB
IR
Trenton Cannon
RB
IR
Da’Shawn Hand
DE
IR
Chris Jackson
DB
IR
Jamarco Jones
OL
IR
Harold Landry III
OLB
IR
Taylor Lewan
T
IR
Racey McMath
WR
IR
Elijah Molden
CB
IR
A.J. Moore Jr
S
IR
Monty Rice
LB
IR
Caleb Shudak
K
PUP

 

Titans Injury News

Commanders: Week 5 Injury Report

Player
Position
Injury
Wed
Percy Butler
S
Quad
DNP
Sam Cosmi
OT
Finger
DNP
Jahan Dotson
WR
Hamstring
DNP
Milo Eifler
LB
Hamstring
DNP
Curtis Samuel
WR
Illness
DNP
Charles Leno Jr.
OT
Shoulder
LP
David Mayo
LB
Hamstring
LP
William Jackson
CB
Back
FP
Daniel Wise
DT
Ankle
FP

 

Commanders: IR, PUP & Out

Player
Pos
Status
Willie Beavers
G
IR
Curtis Hodges
TE
IR
Phidarian Mathis
DT
IR
Chase Roullier
C
IR
Wes Schweitzer
G
IR
Brian Robinson
RB
NFI
Tyler Larsen
C
PUP
Chase Young
DE
PUP

 

Commanders Injury News

Titans at Commanders: Notable Trends

Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).

Titans Trends

HC Mike Vrabel: 15-21-1 ATS (12.2% ROI for faders) as favorite
HC Mike Vrabel: 9-14 ATS (17.8% ROI for faders) following multiple wins in a row

Commanders Trends

Home Underdogs: 82-47-7 ATS (22.3% ROI) with three-game losing streak
Home Underdogs: 16-10-1 ATS (18.5% ROI) with 1-3 record in Week 5

Titans at Commanders: Team Statistics

Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).

Titans Offense vs. Commanders Defense

Metric
Offense
Rank
Defense
Rank
Offense Edge
EPA per Play
-0.033
19
0.044
20
1
Total SR
45.6%
15
40.5%
5
-10
Total DVOA
2.0%
14
8.2%
24
10
Dropback EPA
0.076
12
0.202
28
16
Dropback SR
50.0%
8
45.3%
17
9
Pass DVOA
29.0%
9
27.7%
30
21
Adj. Sack Rate
6.5%
18
8.2%
9
-9
Rush EPA
-0.169
26
-0.222
4
-22
Rush SR
40.0%
17
32.3%
1
-16
Rush DVOA
-14.6%
22
-21.5%
6
-16
Adj. Line Yards
4.39
18
3.94
7
-11
Yards per Play
5.2
19
6
25
6
Points per Game
18.8
21
26.8
29
8

 

Commanders Offense vs. Titans Defense

Metric
Offense
Rank
Defense
Rank
Offense Edge
EPA per Play
-0.104
30
0.101
30
0
Total SR
37.8%
30
43.0%
14
-16
Total DVOA
-17.5%
28
7.0%
21
-7
Dropback EPA
-0.086
27
0.199
27
0
Dropback SR
39.6%
28
48.2%
24
-4
Pass DVOA
-9.2%
27
22.4%
26
-1
Adj. Sack Rate
10.1%
30
6.5%
15
-15
Rush EPA
-0.147
25
-0.090
14
-11
Rush SR
33.3%
31
33.0%
3
-28
Rush DVOA
-23.2%
27
-19.1%
8
-19
Adj. Line Yards
3.85
26
4.18
12
-14
Yards per Play
4.6
32
6.3
30
-2
Points per Game
18.3
25
25.3
25
0

 

Titans at Commanders: Quarterback Statistics

Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 64 plays for EPA + CPOE. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.

2022: Ryan Tannehill

Metric
Output
Rank
EPA + CPOE
0.094
11
AY/A
7.4
13
QBR
47.8
18
ATS Value vs. Avg.
-0.4
19

 

Career: Ryan Tannehill

AY/A: 7.2
QB Elo per Game: -4.5

2022: Carson Wentz

Metric
Output
Rank
EPA + CPOE
0.01
28
AY/A
5.6
28
QBR
35.7
25
ATS Value vs. Avg.
-1.4
29

 

Career: Carson Wentz

AY/A: 6.8
QB Elo per Game: -5.9

Key Matchup: Commanders Defensive Line vs. Titans Offensive Line

Even without EDGE Chase Young (knee, PUP), the Commanders defense has opened the season No. 9 in adjusted sack rate (8.2%) and top-eight in every key rush efficiency metric.

Rush EPA: -0.222 (No. 4)
Rush SR: 32.3% (No. 1)
Rush DVOA: -21.5% (No. 6)
Adj. Line Yards: 3.94 (No. 7)

Compare that to the Titans offense, which is not even average in adjusted sack rate or any rushing efficiency metric.

In our FantasyPros unit power rankings, we see the Commanders defensive line as having a significant edge over the Titans offensive line.

Rank
Defensive Line
Opp OL
OL Rank
Edge
14
WAS
TEN
27
13

 

For the Titans, QB Carson Wentz could be under pressure for much of the game and RB Derrick Henry might struggle to find open running lanes.

In the preseason market, this number was Commanders -0.5, and my projection is still fairly close to that number. They shouldn’t be favored, but they also shouldn’t be dogs of almost a field goal.

Best Line: Commanders +2.5 (-109, Bet Rivers)
First Recommended: Commanders +3 (-115)
Personal Projection: Commanders +0.25
Limit: Commanders +2

Side Note: By the way, if you like a shorter underdog, historically it has been more profitable to bet it on the moneyline than against the spread. This has been the case for underdogs of less than a touchdown.

Special Offer: Get 1 FREE year of BettingPros Premium access >>

Detroit Lions at New England Patriots

Check out our Lions at Patriots matchup page.

Kickoff: Sunday, Oct. 9, 2022, 1 pm ET
Location: Gillette Stadium
TV: FOX

Lions at Patriots: Consensus Lines

Spread: Patriots -3
Over/Under: 45.5
Moneyline: Patriots -159, Lions +140

Lions at Patriots: Betting Percentages

Data from Action Network and as of Oct. 5.

Spread: Patriots – 45% bets, 81% money
Over/Under: Over – 73% bets, 76% money
Moneyline: Patriots – 61% bets, 61% money

Lions at Patriots: Injuries

Lions: Week 5 Injury Report

Player
Position
Injury
Wed
Chris Board
LB
Knee
DNP
Evan Brown
C
Ankle
DNP
Quintez Cephus
WR
Foot
DNP
D.J. Chark
WR
Ankle
DNP
John Cominsky
DE
Wrist
DNP
T.J. Hockenson
TE
Hip
DNP
Frank Ragnow
C
Foot
DNP
Josh Reynolds
WR
Ankle
DNP
Amon-Ra St. Brown
WR
Ankle
DNP
D’Andre Swift
RB
Shoulder/Ankle
DNP
Kayode Awosika
OT
Hamstring
LP
Taylor Decker
OT
Knee
LP
Jonah Jackson
G
Finger
LP
Matt Nelson
OT
Cal
LP
Austin Seibert
K
Right Groin
LP

 

Lions: IR, PUP & Out

Player
Pos
Status
Tommy Kraemer
G
IR
Levi Onwuzurike
DL
IR
Halapoulivaati Vaitai
G
IR
Tracy Walker III
S
IR
Jameson Williams
WR
NFI
Jason Cabinda
FB
PUP
Jerry Jacobs
CB
PUP
Romeo Okwara
DL
PUP
Josh Paschal
DL
PUP

 

Lions Injury News

Patriots: Week 5 Injury Report

Player
Position
Injury
Wed
Lawrence Guy
DE
Shoulder
DNP
Brian Hoyer
QB
Concussion
DNP
DaMarcus Mitchell
DE
Concussion
DNP
Jonnu Smith
TE
Ankle
DNP
Kyle Dugger
S
Knee
LP
Mac Jones
QB
Ankle
LP
Raekwon McMillan
MLB
Thumb
LP
Jakobi Meyers
WR
Knee
LP
Jalen Mills
CB
Hamstring
LP
Adrian Phillips
DB
Ribs
LP
Isaiah Wynn
OT
Hip
LP

 

Patriots: IR, PUP & Out

Player
Pos
Status
Yodny Cajuste
OL
IR
Ty Montgomery
WR
IR
Ronnie Perkins
LB
IR
Tyquan Thornton
WR
IR
Kristian Wilkerson
WR
IR
Joejuan Williams
CB
IR
Quinn Nordin
K
NFI
Andrew Stueber
OL
NFI
Malcolm Perry
WR
Retired
James White
RB
Retired

 

Patriots Injury News

Lions at Patriots: Notable Trends

Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).

Lions Trends

HC Dan Campbell: 14-6 ATS (33.9% ROI) as underdog
Road Underdogs: 179-145-10 ATS (6.4% ROI) off loss (since 2018, when sports betting was legalized)

Patriots Trends

Home Favorites: 140-173-9 ATS (7.7% ROI for faders) when having a losing record the year after making postseason
Home Favorites: 421-471-50 ATS (4.6% ROI for faders) with spread of no more than -3

Lions at Patriots: Team Statistics

Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).

Lions Offense vs. Patriots Defense

Metric
Offense
Rank
Defense
Rank
Offense Edge
EPA per Play
0.111
8
0.048
22
14
Total SR
42.0%
21
46.9%
26
5
Total DVOA
15.0%
7
4.3%
19
12
Dropback EPA
0.119
11
0
11
0
Dropback SR
43.8%
21
43.4%
12
-9
Pass DVOA
24.0%
12
-2.7%
10
-2
Adj. Sack Rate
3.4%
2
8.4%
7
5
Rush EPA
0.098
2
0.119
29
27
Rush SR
39.3%
18
52.0%
31
13
Rush DVOA
12.5%
4
13.5%
31
27
Adj. Line Yards
5.10
4
4.64
21
17
Yards per Play
6.5
1
5.6
16
15
Points per Game
35
1
24.5
22
21

 

Patriots Offense vs. Lions Defense

Metric
Offense
Rank
Defense
Rank
Offense Edge
EPA per Play
-0.014
16
0.209
32
16
Total SR
48.1%
6
50.9%
31
25
Total DVOA
-0.5%
18
18.8%
32
14
Dropback EPA
-0.092
29
0.234
30
1
Dropback SR
46.1%
17
51.1%
28
11
Pass DVOA
-11.1%
28
18.9%
24
-4
Adj. Sack Rate
8.2%
23
6.0%
21
-2
Rush EPA
0.095
3
0.163
32
29
Rush SR
51.0%
1
50.5%
28
27
Rush DVOA
23.6%
1
18.5%
32
31
Adj. Line Yards
5.22
1
4.75
24
23
Yards per Play
5.7
11
6.5
31
20
Points per Game
18.5
23
35.3
32
9

 

Lions at Patriots: Quarterback Statistics

Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 64 plays for EPA + CPOE. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.

2022: Jared Goff

Metric
Output
Rank
EPA + CPOE
0.086
13
AY/A
8
6
QBR
67.1
8
ATS Value vs. Avg.
1.2
9

 

Career: Jared Goff

AY/A: 7.3
QB Elo per Game: 6.0

2022: Brian Hoyer

As a backup, QB Brian Hoyer (concussion) hasn’t played enough snaps to accumulate meaningful statistics this year. Additionally, he’s uncertain to play, although I think he’s likelier to suit up than starter Mac Jones (ankle), whose Week 3 injury was expected to sideline him for multiple weeks.

Career: Brian Hoyer

AY/A: 6.7
QB Elo per Game: -50.2

Key Matchup: Lions Rush Offense vs. Patriots Rush Defense

Even without No. 1 RB D’Andre Swift (shoulder, ankle), I expect the Lions to run successfully against the Patriots defense, which ranks No. 31 in both rush DVOA (13.5%) and rush SR (52.0%).

I’m not worried about the Wednesday DNP for C Frank Ragnow (foot), who last week was DNP for Wednesday, LP for Thursday and FP on Friday before not even showing up on the final injury report. He’s playing on Sunday.

And LG Jonah Jackson (finger) is trending in the right direction with his Wednesday LP after not practicing at all last week. He might actually suit up.

On the other side, the Patriots last week were without DT Lawrence Guy (shoulder), one of their main interior run stoppers. After suffering his injury in Week 3, he didn’t practice at all in Week 4, and his Wednesday DNP this week is a negative sign for his Week 5 availability.

In our FantasyPros unit power rankings, the Lions offensive line has a massive edge over the Patriots defensive line.

Rank
Offensive Line
Opp DL
DL Rank
Edge
3
DET
NE
26
23

 

I expect the Lions to push the Patriots around and control the ball via the ground attack, which should keep this game close.

This line was Lions +1 in the lookahead market, and that’s where I have it projected now. Maybe the market believes that Patriots QB Mac Jones has a real shot to play this week, but I’m skeptical.

Best Line: Lions +3.5 (-115, FanDuel)
First Recommended: Lions +3 (-115)
Personal Projection: Lions +1
Limit: Lions +3

View 5-star bets and historical prop performance by player with our Prop Bet Analyzer >>

San Francisco 49ers at Carolina Panthers

Check out our 49ers at Panthers matchup page.

Kickoff: Sunday, Oct. 9, 2022, 4:05 pm ET
Location: Bank of America Stadium
TV: CBS

49ers at Panthers: Consensus Lines

Spread: 49ers -6.5
Over/Under: 39
Moneyline: 49ers -275, Panthers +235

49ers at Panthers: Betting Percentages

Data from Action Network and as of Oct. 5.

Spread: 49ers – 75% bets, 76% money
Over/Under: Under – 50% bets, 71% money
Moneyline: Panthers – 18% bets, 38% money

49ers at Panthers: Injuries

49ers: Week 5 Injury Report

Player
Position
Injury
Wed
Trent Williams
OT
Ankle
DNP
Colton McKivitz
OT
Knee
DNP
Tyrion Davis-Price
RB
Ankle
DNP
Tyler Kroft
TE
Knee
DNP
Arik Armstead
DT
Foot, Ankle
DNP
Javon Kinlaw
DT
Knee
DNP
Tarvarius Moore
DB
Hamstring
DNP
Nick Bosa
DE
Rest
DNP
Ross Dwelley
TE
Rib
LP
Jauan Jennings
WR
Ankle
LP

 

49ers: IR, PUP & Out

Player
Pos
Status
Azeez Al-Shaair
LB
IR
Maurice Hurst
DL
IR
Trey Lance
QB
IR
Jordan Matthews
TE
IR
Elijah Mitchell
RB
IR
Curtis Robinson
LB
IR
Jimmie Ward
DB
IR
Jordan Willis
DL
IR
Kalia Davis
DL
NFI
Jason Verrett
CB
PUP

 

49ers Injury News

Panthers: Week 5 Injury Report

Player
Position
Injury
Wed
Christian McCaffrey
RB
Rest
DNP
Laviska Shenault Jr.
WR
Hamstring
DNP
Stantley Thomas-Oliver
CB
Thigh
DNP
Xavier Woods
S
Hamstring
DNP
Marquis Haynes
DE
Knee
LP
Frankie Luvu
OLB
Shoulder
LP
Shaq Thompson
OLB
Knee
LP
Stephen Sullivan
TE
Back
FP

 

Panthers: IR, PUP & Out

Player
Pos
Status
Jeremy Chinn
S
IR
Matt Corral
QB
IR
Sam Darnold
QB
IR
Zane Gonzalez
K
IR
Andre Roberts
WR
IR
Bravvion Roy
DT
IR
Julian Stanford
LB
IR

 

Panthers Injury News

49ers at Panthers: Notable Trends

Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).

49ers Trends

HC Kyle Shanahan: 16-26-1 ATS (18.8% ROI for faders) as favorite
HC Kyle Shanahan: 19-24 ML (25.8% ROI for faders) as favorite

Panthers Trends

QB Baker Mayfield: 8-4 ATS (29.4% ROI) as underdog off loss
Underdogs: 33-24-2 ATS (12.4% ROI) when playing third consecutive home game

49ers at Panthers: Team Statistics

Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).

49ers Offense vs. Panthers Defense

Metric
Offense
Rank
Defense
Rank
Offense Edge
EPA per Play
-0.041
20
-0.05
10
-10
Total SR
39.8%
27
41.4%
7
-20
Total DVOA
-7.4%
21
-0.9%
12
-9
Dropback EPA
0.006
18
0.022
12
-6
Dropback SR
41.4%
25
42.4%
9
-16
Pass DVOA
12.0%
16
10.0%
19
3
Adj. Sack Rate
6.3%
15
3.9%
31
16
Rush EPA
-0.090
20
-0.154
9
-11
Rush SR
38.2%
24
39.8%
15
-9
Rush DVOA
-16.6%
24
-14.1%
10
-14
Adj. Line Yards
4.09
21
4.46
16
-5
Yards per Play
5.5
14
5
8
-6
Points per Game
17.8
27
21.3
13
-14

 

Panthers Offense vs. 49ers Defense

Metric
Offense
Rank
Defense
Rank
Offense Edge
EPA per Play
-0.147
32
-0.177
1
-31
Total SR
37.6%
31
37.1%
1
-30
Total DVOA
-22.7%
31
-29.5%
1
-30
Dropback EPA
-0.188
32
-0.184
3
-29
Dropback SR
33.8%
32
39.6%
2
-30
Pass DVOA
-31.3%
31
-26.7%
4
-27
Adj. Sack Rate
9.3%
28
10.0%
3
-25
Rush EPA
-0.073
18
-0.165
8
-10
Rush SR
44.3%
11
32.6%
2
-9
Rush DVOA
-4.4%
16
-33.3%
1
-15
Adj. Line Yards
4.73
8
3.32
1
-7
Yards per Play
4.9
27
3.8
1
-26
Points per Game
19.5
17
11.5
1
-16

 

49ers at Panthers: Quarterback Statistics

Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 64 plays for EPA + CPOE. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.

2022: Jimmy Garoppolo

Metric
Output
Rank
EPA + CPOE
0.07
18
AY/A
8
6
QBR
33.2
27
ATS Value vs. Avg.
-0.5
21

 

Career: Jimmy Garoppolo

AY/A: 8.1
QB Elo per Game: -7.6

2022: Baker Mayfield

Metric
Output
Rank
EPA + CPOE
-0.048
32
AY/A
5.9
24
QBR
15.3
32
ATS Value vs. Avg.
-2.8
35

 

Career: Baker Mayfield

AY/A: 6.9
QB Elo per Game: -40.3

Key Matchup: Panthers Rush Defense vs. 49ers Rush Offense

The Panthers are an easy team to overlook because of the collective incompetence of HC Matt Rhule, OC Ben McAdoo and QB Baker Mayfield, but they’re actually good on defense.

They’re top-12 against both the pass and the run.

Pass EPA: 0.022 (No. 12)
Rush EPA: -0.154 (No. 9)

Their run defense especially should help them keep this contest close, as the 49ers offense is No. 6 in rush rate (51.7%) and heavily predicated on the run game, which they haven’t been able to do well, ranking no better than No. 20 in any rushing efficiency metric.

Rush EPA: -0.090 (No. 20)
Rush SR: 38.2% (No. 24)
Rush DVOA: -16.6% (No. 24)
Adj. Line Yards: 4.09 (No. 21)

The 49ers running game should be especially hampered by their injuries. Not only are they without No. 1 RB Elijah Mitchell (knee, IR), backup RB Tyrion Davis-Price (ankle) and running QB Trey Lance (leg), but they are also highly likely to be without starting LT Trent Williams (ankle) and backup LT Colton McKivitz (knee).

This number was Panthers +3 in the lookahead market just a week ago. Not enough has changed from then to now to justify the line movement we’ve seen.

Best Line: Panthers +6.5 (-110, DraftKings)
First Recommended: Panthers +6.5 (-110)
Personal Projection: Panthers +4.5
Limit: Panthers +6

Note: I already have a position on this game of 49ers -3 (-110) via the lookahead line, but given my current projection and the range between 49ers -3 and Panthers +6.5, I think it’s worth adding to my original position in an attempt to middle. 

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Philadelphia Eagles at Arizona Cardinals

Check out our Eagles at Cardinals matchup page.

Kickoff: Sunday, Oct. 9, 2022, 4:25 pm ET
Location: State Farm Stadium
TV: FOX

Eagles at Cardinals: Consensus Lines

Spread: Eagles -5.5
Over/Under: 49
Moneyline: Eagles -230, Cardinals +195

Eagles at Cardinals: Betting Percentages

Data from Action Network and as of Oct. 5.

Spread: Eagles – 50% bets, 76% money
Over/Under: Over – 71% bets, 71% money
Moneyline: Cardinals – 56% bets, 85% money

Eagles at Cardinals: Injuries

Eagles: Week 5 Injury Report

Player
Position
Injury
Wed
Jake Elliott
K
Right Ankle
DNP
Kyron Johnson
LB
Concussion
DNP
Patrick Johnson
LB
Concussion
DNP
Avonte Maddox
CB
Ankle
DNP
Jordan Mailata
OT
Shoulder
DNP
Boston Scott
RB
Rib
LP
Isaac Seumalo
G
Ankle
LP
Darius Slay
CB
Forearm
FP

 

Eagles: IR, PUP & Out

Player
Pos
Status
Derek Barnett
DE
IR
Andre Dillard
T
IR
Jaeden Graham
TE
IR
Greg Ward
WR
IR
Tyree Jackson
TE
PUP
Brett Toth
T/G
PUP

 

Eagles Injury News

Cardinals: Week 5 Injury Report

Player
Position
Injury
Wed
Kelvin Beachum
OT
NIR-Rest
DNP
Marquise Brown
WR
Foot
DNP
Zach Ertz
TE
NIR-Rest
DNP
Max Garcia
G
Toe
DNP
Rodney Hudson
C
Knee
DNP
Rashard Lawrence
NT
Hand
DNP
Matt Prater
K
Right Hip
DNP
Justin Pugh
G
Elbow
DNP
Nick Vigil
OLB
Hamstring
DNP
Maxx Williams
TE
Knee
DNP
Zaven Collins
ILB
Shoulder
LP
A.J. Green
WR
Knee
LP
D.J. Humphries
OT
Hamstring
LP
Zeke Turner
LB
Ankle
LP
J.J. Watt
DE
Calf
LP

 

Cardinals: IR, PUP & Out

Player
Pos
Status
Tae Daley
S
IR
Cody Ford
OL
IR
Marquis Hayes
OL
IR
Joshua Miles
OL
IR
Charles Washington
S
IR
Antonio Hamilton
CB
IR
Colt McCoy
QB
IR
Antoine Wesley
WR
IR
DeAndre Hopkins
WR
Suspended

 

Cardinals Injury News

Eagles at Cardinals: Notable Trends

Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).

Cardinals Trends

HC Kliff Kingsbury: 20-9-2 ATS (32.0% ROI) as underdog
HC Kliff Kingsbury: 16-14-1 ML (43.6% ROI) as underdog

Eagles at Cardinals: Team Statistics

Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).

Eagles Offense vs. Cardinals Defense

Metric
Offense
Rank
Defense
Rank
Offense Edge
EPA per Play
0.12
5
0.047
21
16
Total SR
46.1%
13
48.1%
29
16
Total DVOA
17.9%
4
11.3%
29
25
Dropback EPA
0.198
4
0.19
26
22
Dropback SR
46.3%
16
52.6%
31
15
Pass DVOA
39.9%
4
24.1%
28
24
Adj. Sack Rate
7.1%
20
3.1%
32
12
Rush EPA
0.025
6
-0.226
3
-3
Rush SR
45.8%
8
39.5%
13
5
Rush DVOA
7.3%
6
-13.9%
11
5
Adj. Line Yards
4.44
16
4.56
18
2
Yards per Play
6.1
5
6.1
27
22
Points per Game
28.8
4
25.8
28
24

 

Cardinals Offense vs. Eagles Defense

Metric
Offense
Rank
Defense
Rank
Offense Edge
EPA per Play
-0.011
15
-0.153
2
-13
Total SR
43.5%
19
42.9%
13
-6
Total DVOA
-8.5%
22
-24.8%
3
-19
Dropback EPA
-0.014
20
-0.204
1
-19
Dropback SR
42.2%
22
41.0%
3
-19
Pass DVOA
-6.9%
25
-36.8%
2
-23
Adj. Sack Rate
5.5%
9
10.1%
2
-7
Rush EPA
-0.004
11
-0.028
22
11
Rush SR
46.4%
7
47.3%
26
19
Rush DVOA
-1.4%
14
-1.0%
23
9
Adj. Line Yards
4.65
12
4.57
19
7
Yards per Play
4.8
28
4.5
3
-25
Points per Game
22
14
17.8
9
-5

 

Eagles at Cardinals: Quarterback Statistics

Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 64 plays for EPA + CPOE. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.

2022: Jalen Hurts

Metric
Output
Rank
EPA + CPOE
0.133
6
AY/A
9
2
QBR
60.7
10
ATS Value vs. Avg.
1.6
8

 

Career: Jalen Hurts

AY/A: 7.4
QB Elo per Game: 46.9

2022: Kyler Murray

Metric
Output
Rank
EPA + CPOE
0.034
25
AY/A
5.8
25
QBR
48.4
17
ATS Value vs. Avg.
2.0
7

 

Career: Kyler Murray

AY/A: 7.0
QB Elo per Game: 65.7

Key Matchup: Cardinals Rush Offense vs. Eagles Rush Defense

The Cardinals have been something of a joke under HC Kliff Kingsbury with their “horizontal raid” passing attack — but they’ve also always been able to run the ball well, given that QB Kyler Murray is a strong scrambler and the offense forces defenses to spread out.

And on defense the Eagles have continued to struggle against the run despite the offseason additions of DT Jordan Davis (draft), EDGE Haason Reddick (free agency) and LBs Kyzir White (free agency) and Nakobe Dean (draft).

This year the Cardinals offense has outperformed the Eagles defense in every key rush efficiency metric.

Metric
Offense
Rank
Defense
Rank
Offense Edge
Rush EPA
-0.004
11
-0.028
22
11
Rush SR
46.4%
7
47.3%
26
19
Rush DVOA
-1.4%
14
-1.0%
23
9
Adj. Line Yards
4.65
12
4.57
19
7

 

If a home team can run the ball with success, it has a good chance to cover, whether it’s a favorite or an underdog.

In the offseason market, this line was Cardinals -2.5. They have underperformed expectations to open the year, and the Eagles have outperformed, but not enough for this line to move eight points in just four games.

Best Line: Cardinals +5.5 (-110, BetMGM)
First Recommended: Cardinals +6 (-110)
Personal Projection: Cardinals +2.75
Limit: Cardinals +5

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Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs

Check out our Raiders at Chiefs matchup page.

Kickoff: Monday, Oct. 10, 2022, 8:15 pm ET
Location: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
TV: ESPN

Raiders at Chiefs: Consensus Lines

Spread: Chiefs -7
Over/Under: 51
Moneyline: Chiefs -330, Raiders +275

Raiders at Chiefs: Betting Percentages

Data from Action Network and as of Oct. 5.

Spread: Chiefs – 79% bets, 81% money
Over/Under: Over – 74% bets, 94% money
Moneyline: Chiefs – 53% bets, 94% money

Raiders at Chiefs: Injuries

Raiders: Week 5 Injury Report

No injury report as of writing.

Raiders: IR, PUP & Out

Player
Pos
Status
Anthony Averett
CB
IR
Jordan Jenkins
DE
IR
Micah Kiser
LB
IR
Sincere McCormick
RB
IR
Brandon Parker
T
IR
DJ Turner
WR
IR

 

Raiders Injury News

Chiefs: Week 5 Injury Report

No injury report as of writing.

Chiefs: IR, PUP & Out

Player
Pos
Status
Blake Bell
TE
IR
Trent McDuffie
CB
IR
Justyn Ross
WR
IR
Lucas Niang
OL
PUP
Jerrion Ealy
WR/RB
Suspended
Willie Gay
LB
Suspended

 

Chiefs Injury News

Raiders at Chiefs: Notable Trends

Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).

Chiefs Trends

HC Andy Reid: 33-21-1 ATS (19.6% ROI) in division (with Chiefs)
QB Patrick Mahomes: 14-9-1 ATS (17.6% ROI) in primetime (including playoffs)

Raiders at Chiefs: Team Statistics

Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).

Raiders Offense vs. Chiefs Defense

Metric
Offense
Rank
Defense
Rank
Offense Edge
EPA per Play
0.018
12
0.001
13
1
Total SR
44.5%
16
47.0%
27
11
Total DVOA
-6.0%
20
2.0%
14
-6
Dropback EPA
0.039
16
0.038
15
-1
Dropback SR
46.4%
15
48.7%
25
10
Pass DVOA
1.0%
21
13.5%
21
0
Adj. Sack Rate
6.5%
19
7.2%
11
-8
Rush EPA
-0.026
14
-0.101
11
-3
Rush SR
40.7%
15
42.5%
21
6
Rush DVOA
-0.8%
13
-22.8%
5
-8
Adj. Line Yards
5.19
2
3.82
5
3
Yards per Play
5.6
12
5
8
-4
Points per Game
24
10
24
20
10

 

Chiefs Offense vs. Raiders Defense

Metric
Offense
Rank
Defense
Rank
Offense Edge
EPA per Play
0.211
1
0.021
17
16
Total SR
50.4%
1
44.5%
19
18
Total DVOA
17.6%
5
5.0%
20
15
Dropback EPA
0.32
1
0.159
23
22
Dropback SR
54.4%
2
45.6%
19
17
Pass DVOA
35.0%
7
15.0%
22
15
Adj. Sack Rate
4.1%
3
5.2%
28
25
Rush EPA
0.018
7
-0.210
6
-1
Rush SR
43.3%
12
42.7%
22
10
Rush DVOA
-6.5%
17
-7.9%
16
-1
Adj. Line Yards
4.67
10
4.08
9
-1
Yards per Play
6
6
5.8
21
15
Points per Game
32.3
2
25
23
21

 

Raiders at Chiefs: Quarterback Statistics

Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 64 plays for EPA + CPOE. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.

2022: Derek Carr

Metric
Output
Rank
EPA + CPOE
0.076
16
AY/A
6.4
20
QBR
55.2
13
ATS Value vs. Avg.
0.0
17

 

Career: Derek Carr

AY/A: 7.1
QB Elo per Game: 14.3

2022: Patrick Mahomes

Metric
Output
Rank
EPA + CPOE
0.197
2
AY/A
8.5
3
QBR
82.3
1
ATS Value vs. Avg.
4.5
2

 

Career: Patrick Mahomes

AY/A: 8.7
QB Elo per Game: 117.1

Key Matchup: Chiefs Pass Offense vs. Raiders Pass Defense

For a team to cover a big spread, it usually needs to be able to move the ball through the air so that it can score a lot of points quickly. And with QB Patrick Mahomes, the Chiefs can do that. Even without WR Tyreek Hill, they’re top-eight in all the key pass efficiency metrics this year — and the Raiders defense very much isn’t.

Metric
Offense
Rank
Defense
Rank
Offense Edge
Dropback EPA
0.32
1
0.159
23
22
Dropback SR
54.4%
2
45.6%
19
17
Pass DVOA
35.0%
7
15.0%
22
15
Adj. Sack Rate
4.1%
3
5.2%
28
25

 

In our FantasyPros unit power rankings, we see Mahomes as having a massive edge over the Raiders defense in general and the secondary in particular.

Rank
Quarterback
Offense
Opp Defense
Defense Rank
Secondary Rank
QB-Def Edge
QB-Sec Edge
2
Patrick Mahomes II
KC
LV
25
29
23
27

 

The Chiefs should be able to score at will.

Best Line: Chiefs -7 (-110, Caesars)
First Recommended: Chiefs -6.5 (-110)
Personal Projection: Chiefs -9
Limit: Chiefs -7

Freedman’s 5 ATS Picks for Season-Long Contests

The five spreads I’ve highlighted above are the ones that right (right now) I’m leaning toward in the DraftKings picks contest.

Note: The lines for this contest can vary from those highlighted above.

Commanders +2.5 vs. Titans
Lions +2.5 at Patriots
Panthers +6.5 vs. 49ers
Cardinals +5.5 vs. Eagles
Chiefs -7.5 vs. Raiders

I don’t love that I’m off the key numbers of +3 and -7 with the Lions and Chiefs. I might pivot away from those picks.

Also in consideration are:

Giants +8.5 at Packers (in London)
Browns +3.5 vs. Chargers
Texans +7.5 at Jaguars
Seahawks +5.5 at Saints
Jets +3.5 vs. Dolphins
Steelers +14.5 at Bills
Rams -4.5 vs. Cowboys
Bengals +3.5 at Ravens

Look for my tweet update on Sunday before kickoff.

Week 4 Record

Picks in BettingPros Tracker, Discord & Articles: 8-8 (-0.79 units)
Picks in $1M DraftKings picks pool: 1-4

Year-to-Date Record

Picks in BettingPros Tracker, Discord & Articles: 27-20-1 (+5.07 units)
Picks in $1M DraftKings picks pool: 12-8

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Author: Michael Walker