Here are our odds, picks, and predictions for every NFL game on the Week 3 slate.
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NFL Week 3 Odds, Picks & Predictions
Steelers vs. Browns
Last week, the Jets embarrassed the Browns by recovering an onside kick and completing an unbelievable comeback. They will be looking for redemption against a struggling Pittsburgh offense. This rivalry game will look a little different than years past and will not feature tremendous quarterback play. Jadeveon Clowney is out, but Myles Garrett will play. T.J. Watt will still be on the sideline for Pittsburgh. Garrett will look to add to his three sacks this season against a unit that has allowed four through two games.
On offense, the Browns will look to run the ball, per usual. They have 76 rushing attempts, the second most in the league. Last week, the Steelers’ defense minus Watt allowed 4 yards per carry to the Patriots. Nick Chubb is averaging 5.8 yards per carry and will find lanes against the Steelers’ defense, which allows 128.5 rushing yards per game.
Pick: Browns -4.5, Lean u38.5
Texans vs. Bears
Justin Fields has only thrown the ball 28 times this season, which is by far the fewest in the league. Chicago wants to run the football, and they should be able to at home against Houston. Houston gives up 4.7 yards per rush attempt and 163 yards per game. David Montgomery ran for 122 yards last week at Green Bay, so he will likely have an efficient day.
The Bears are one of two teams worse than the Texans against the run. They have allowed 189.5 yards per game this season. It is a weakness the Texans can exploit if they choose, but they have yet to show a strong rushing attack. Through two games, they average 78.5 rushing yards per game. The team with a better rushing attack will likely win this game since neither team has consistent play from their quarterback.
Pick: Bears -2.5, Lean u40.5
Raiders vs. Titans
Both teams have had little success running the ball, ranking in the bottom third of the league in rush offense DVOA and yards per game. This isn’t much of an issue for the Raiders as QB Derek Carr and the receivers are the offense’s focal point. If the offensive line can keep Carr on his feet and he limits mistakes, they can exploit a Titans’ coverage that ranks 26th in pass defense DVOA through two weeks.
For Tennessee, moving the ball on the ground is paramount. If they can’t move the ball against Las Vegas, who limited the Chargers and Cardinals in the run game, they won’t be able to open up the passing game and will struggle to put up points on this Raiders defense. The Titans’ offense is sputtering, and if they can’t find themselves soon, this season could get out of hand.
Pick: Raiders -2, Lean u45.5
Chiefs vs. Colts
Indianapolis is finally home after the offense struggled in two divisional road games. Unfortunately for them, their opponent is the red-hot Chiefs. The Chiefs have moved on from WR Tyreek Hill pretty quickly, producing the 3rd ranked offensive DVOA through two weeks, led by their passing attack. The Colts provide a favorable matchup after allowing effective passing days from QB Davis Mills and QB Trevor Lawrence, clocking the 29th ranked pass defense DVOA. QB Patrick Mahomes and the company will have a field day.
Meanwhile, QB Matt Ryan has not been the upgrade over Carson Wentz that the Colts wanted. He’s been dreadful through two games with one touchdown, four interceptions, and a putrid 31.2 QBR. The Kansas City defense has shut down both opponents’ running attacks, so the Colts are in for a long afternoon if Ryan is forced to make plays with a banged-up receiving corps.
Pick: Lean Chiefs -6.5, u50.5
Bills vs. Dolphins
This matchup features two of the top pass offenses in the league by almost any metric. The Bills have done well so far defending the pass though the results came against a sputtering Tennessee offense and a LA Ram offense that kept turning the ball over. Miami has the weapons to exploit this defense, similar to how the Chiefs did in the Divisional round of the playoffs last year. This game could turn into a track meet quickly.
In week 2, Miami was torched by Lamar Jackson through the air and on the ground but was able to come back when the Ravens’ shaky traditional run game wasn’t able to ice the game away. Josh Allen should be able to have his way in this matchup, but the defense will need critical stops, and the run game will need to step up if the Bills want to leave Miami with a big divisional win.
Pick: Lean Dolphins +6, Lean o52.5
Lions vs. Vikings
Jared Goff and the Lions got their first win of the season against the Commanders. They have 35 points in consecutive games and lead the league with 7.2 rushing yards per attempt. The Vikings allow 5.6 yards per rush attempt, so Detroit should be able to move the ball on the ground. The Vikings should also be able to run the ball since the Lions have allowed 5.1 yards per rush attempt and five rushing TDs this season. Dalvin Cook will probably score his first TD of the season, especially if they find the red zone. The Lions have allowed seven touchdowns on eight red zone attempts. Kirk Cousins threw three interceptions last week, so the Vikings might be more apt to run the ball this week against a poor run defense. The Lions’ offense has been playing better lately, and they get the job done on the road.
Pick: Lean Lions +6, u52.5
Ravens vs. Patriots
The Baltimore Ravens surely will be a popular pick to bounce back following an astonishing fourth-quarter home collapse versus the Miami Dolphins. Be wary of backing Baltimore, however.
New England Patriots HC Bill Belichick owns a 15-4 record ATS as a home underdog. Despite most of these games occurring during the Tom Brady era, the trend has held up with a 3-2 record over the last two seasons.
If the Patriots can limit Baltimore’s explosive plays, there is a path for New England to win this game. However, the offensive disparity in this matchup is glaring, and it is difficult to endorse the Patriots outright to cover the short spread.
Pick: Lean Patriots +3, Lean u43.5
Bengals vs. Jets
The Bengals are off to one of the most disappointing starts in the league. QB Joe Burrow and the offense have yet to get going, but the final scores do not tell the whole story. In matchups with Pittsburgh and Dallas, they were up against the 6th and 8th ranked defenses per DVOA. The week 3 contest with the Jets provides a much more favorable matchup with the dead last ranked defense per DVOA.
The Jets offense has leaned heavily on Joe Flacco, who has led the NFL in pass attempts over the first two weeks. He was capable of getting them back into the game against Cleveland, but so long as this defense is going to keep digging them into holes, Flacco’s heroics won’t be enough.
The Bengals should bounce back here on the road and avenge last year’s loss to the Jets with a comfortable win.
Pick: Bengals -5, u45
Eagles vs. Commanders
The Eagles looked dominant on Monday night and looked to continue that production at the Commanders this week. They run into a 1-1 Commanders team that looks to shake off the high-scoring loss at the Lions last week.
The Commanders have given up the fifth most rushing yards this year at 157 yards per game, while the Eagles have rushed for the second most yards at 190 yards per game. With that said, the Commanders have only allowed two total rushing yards to QBs this season, but Jalen Hurts is a rushing QB that doesn’t compare to Goff and Lawrence.
Look for the Eagles to run the ball early and often. Like last week, we could see the Commanders get down early and turn to Wentz and the receiving corps to put up some late, second-half points.
Pick: Lean Eagles -6.5, o47.5
Saints vs. Panthers
Two 55+ yard field goals have been the difference in the Panther’s 0-2 record, and they look to bounce back as they host the Saints this week. Jameis Winston and the Saints, on the other hand, are a roller coaster. A lackluster offensive performance in week 2 followed a late, heroic win versus the Falcons in week 1—no telling what week 3 could bring.
That said, Carolina has allowed the third least passing yards per game but the fourth most rushing yards per game. With some reports saying Kamara is probably playing in week 3, he could be the deciding factor in the final judgment.
In the end, this game will be decided by takeaways. The Saints have turned it over a league-high six times so far, while the Panthers aren’t too far behind with three. Whoever can hold onto the ball will likely win this game.
Pick: Panthers +3, Lean u40.5
Jaguars vs. Chargers
Jacksonville QB Trevor Lawrence was one of the best players in the NFL last week. The second-year pro ripped apart the Colts’ cover-three defense, and the Jaguars offense has sneakily been among the best units in the NFL through two weeks.
TheChargers’s defense will be much more difficult for the young offense to navigate, but it is still worth placing a wager on Jacksonville +7.
Additionally, expect this line to shift precipitously on the off-chance that Chargers QB Justin Herbert does not play in this game due to broken rib cartilage.
Exploiting opportunities for Closing Line Value (CLV) is a profitable long-term betting strategy. Even if Herbert were to suit u,p the Jags are still an underdog to back this Sunday.
Pick: Jaguars +7, Lean u47.5
Rams vs. Cardinals
The Cardinals welcome their divisional rival coming off an exhilarating win over the Raiders in week 2. Kyler Murray became the savior for the Cardinals with his video-game-like 2-point plays late in the 4th quarter. They will look to keep the momentum going versus a talented and deep Rams roster.
Since 2018, there has not been one regular season game between these two teams that has been closer than 7 points. The average winning margin in the eight games played from 2018 – 2021 was 16.25 points, and I don’t see this trend coming to a halt here in week 3.
The Rams are the better team. Look for a shootout and the Rams to pull away in the 4th quarter.
Pick: Rams -3.5, o48.5
Falcons vs. Seahawks
Two of the worst teams in the NFC will meet in Seattle in an afterthought of a matchup in comparison to the rest of the week three slate.
The Seahawks upset victory over Denver in week one will likely be the highlight of their season, and the Falcons will probably be searching for such a high throughout the year. Despite having such low stakes, this game will likely be competitive throughout.
Expect Atlanta to find success rushing the ball versus an exploitable Seattle front-seven, and be hopeful that the Falconscano get TE Kyle Pitts involved in this matchup. Conversely, Atlanta will struggle to match up with WRs DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett.
Expect points in this game, and for the Seahawks to cover a short spread in Atlanta’s second consecutive game on the west coast.
Pick: Seahawks -2, o42
Packers vs. Buccaneers
Two of the game’s greatest QBsface off in a battle of NFC heavyweights. Such offensive firepower typically expected of Aaron Rodgers’ and Tom Brady’s teams have been absent so far this season, as both quarterbacks have had to deal with receiver rooms devoid of familiar favorites.
Both teams will look to establish the run but expect Tampa to succeed more in the ground game than Green Bay. The Buccaneers’ defense has been historic through two weeks, and the Packers currently lack the personnel to keep the unit on its heels.
Expect Tampa to cover the spread in their home opener and for the Packers to struggle to find any offensive rhythm.
Pick: Bucs -1, u41.5
49ers vs. Broncos
Russell Wilson will be playing a familiar foe on Sunday night. The best defense in terms of yardage will be coming to Denver to take on a struggling Broncos offense. They have moved the ball well but have failed to score points. On six red zone trips, they have scored zero TDs. Another problem is the number of penalties they have received this season. They have been flagged 25 times for 206 yards. Penalties are a problem against the 49ers, who allow 226.5 yards per game. They are not a team that the Broncos can afford to lose yards to mental errors.
On offense for the 49ers, Jimmy Garoppolo replaces the injured Trey Lance. He led them to the NFC Championship last season, so they are fortunate to have signed him before the season. He will have a tough test in his first start.
Pick: Broncos +1.5, u44.5
Cowboys vs. Giants
To round out the week 3 slate, the Giants host the Cowboys in one of the small groups of games with a home favorite this week. Both teams are coming off 3-point wins due to lengthy, late field goals and look to keep up with the ever-so-daunting NFC East.
Dallas stymied Joe Burrow and the Bengals’ offense last week with their ability to get to the QB. Look for that to continue as the struggling Giants OL has given upeight8 sacks through 2 weeks here in 2022. While New York has rushed for 171 yards per game to start the season, good for a top-five mark through 2 weeks, Dallas has proven to limit talented RBs like Mixon when they are called upon to step up.
With that said, it’s hard to bet on Cooper Rush. Even 39 is too many points.
Pick: Lean Giants -1, u39
What is Betting Against the Spread?
Betting “against the spread” refers to choosing the winning team based on a numeric handicap placed on the team that oddsmakers believe is superior, rather than picking the outright winner. For example, if the Rams face the Bengals, and oddsmakers set the spread at Rams -3.5, you would need Los Angeles to win by 4 or more points to cash your Rams bet.
What is an Over/Under Bet?
Over/Under is a wager based on how many points you think will be scored in a specific game. Oddsmakers set the total, and bettors decide whether the final score will be higher or lower than that. If an Over/Under is set at 44.5 points, and you bet Over, you will need the combined score of both teams to be 45 points or higher to win your bet.
What is a Moneyline Bet?
A moneyline bet involves choosing which team you believe will win a specific matchup. The moneyline favorite carries a minus designation, like -130, and you need to wager $130 to earn a $100 profit. Conversely, the underdog carries a plus tag, like +110. You win $110 in profit on a $100 bet.
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